Friday, January 28, 2011

Egyptian plages

No internet in Egypt today, and no SMSes. Dictators learn fast.

And yet, they have riots on an unprecedented scale. Mubarak's regime is wobbling.

After today, I can't see things going back to the way they were. Either Mubarak's regime falls, or it is forced to make large-scale reforms, or it really clamps down on the citizens, and rules with an iron fist. Either way, it won't last long.

What happens if Mubarak falls?

The main concern is that the Muslim Brotherhood will take over. But I don't think this will happen. There are other strong forces now in the Arab world, and they will make a stand. There will have to be some sort of power share.

Maybe there will be some sort of democracy, like in Lebanon.

If that happens, Egypt will become very hostile towards Israel. The Egyptian people hate our guts.

I fear for the peace. They can easily announce that anything the previous regime signed is null and void, and tear up the peace agreement with Israel.

But this is something we will have to deal with at some point anyway. If the new administration wants to be taken seriously by the international community, it will be hard for them to disregard previous agreements. It will be tough, and there will be a lot of hostility at first, but in the long run, it might produce the growth of a stronger relationship between our two nations.

If we ever want to live in peace, we in Israel must wish for the fall of Arab dictatorships, and a rise in the power of the Arab people. In the long run, this is the only thing that can bring peace. I was hoping it won't start with Egypt, but it isn't up to me. And a successful uprising in Egypt will surely inspire an uprising against worst dictatorships, like Libya and Syria.

The battle over the new face of the Middle East begins now.

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